An internet diary
As we careen towards destiny
Published on October 7, 2004 By IanTyger In Politics

Bush used the potential of Iraqi WMDs to invade Iraq so that we would have Iran (a country that there is not question anymore about being inimical to the USA and attempting to acquire WMD) caught in a two-front vise. So that we would have battle-hardened troops on the border of Iran. He took advantage of Saddam's intransigence.

This compares to the undeclared war FDR had going in the North Atlantic between the US Navy and the Nazi Kriegsmarine. FDR had to drag the US kicking and screaming into WWII. He got a boost for this from Pearl Harbor, and from Hitler deciding to declare war on the USA; but make no mistake, the US involvement in WWII was just as much of "FDR's war" as the War on Terror is "GWB's war". And the decision to invade Iraq after being attacked on 9/11 is just as valid as the decision to invade Africa was after being attacked on 12/7. More valid, in some ways, as we are putting troops into the same theatre of operations from which our attackers came.

Could Bush have used this argument to get the US people behind him? Please. Look at the problems we have now. So the argument was, Iraq has not stopped trying to obtain WMD, they show no signs of changing their habits, and the efforts we are making to keep him from getting them are becoming intolerable to maintain. So we have chosen to make sure he can no longer attempt to acquire WMD and threaten stability by removing him from the equation. The enemies of the President have chosen to interpret this as "Saddam has WMD, we must get rid of him for that reason". That's not what he said. He said Saddam wants to get them, and we can no longer keep doing what we are doing to keep him from getting them. We're doing things differently now.

Remember, people, the final goal is not a stabilized Iraq. The final goal is a world where terrorists cannot flourish because all the world's governments will not support them. This will require a stable Iraq, so that is one of the results. But it is not the goal. Focusing on results in Iraq is like complaining because your football (US rules) team is not trying to make a first down when it is 2nd and 7 on the 11th yard line, with your team down by 4, and 30 seconds left on the clock. Kerry wants to punt, others want to concede the game. Bush wants to score the touchdown. But that means taking risks, that means putting the ball in the air where it can be intercepted. But it needs to be done.

Did Bush mislead the American public? Did FDR mislead the American public in 1940 when the US Navy was fighting engagements with the Kriegsmarine off the coast of the USA? Did FDR mislead the public when he loaned US equipment to warring nations with no real expectation that they would be able to pay for it? Or would you like to argue that WWII was illegitimate because a cabal of Interventionists tricked the country into war?

Except this time our president is merely guilty of over-emphasizing one aspect of a complicated calculus of decisions that have led us to this point. And it looks a little grim from here. But I recently re-read The Moon is a Harsh Mistress by robert Heinlein. In is, a group of revolutionaries decide that they will go ahead with their revolution if (and only if) their computer says to them that they have better than one chance it ten of succeeding. After much time spent calculating, the computer comes up with 1 chance in seven, and they go ahead. But during their struggle, the computer keep srecalculating, and the odds spend a lot of time getting worse (they hit under 1% at the low point) before they get better. That's where we are right now - the odds at the beginning looked pretty good. They have gooten worse as we have chosen certain paths over others. But we still have a chance, and things are beginning to look better. We can try and make it better, or we can give up now, and leave an even worse mess for the next time around.

You know where I stand on that question.


Comments (Page 1)
2 Pages1 2 
on Oct 07, 2004
Your post was great IanTyger. I think too many people see these things as black and white, when instead they are all too complex. That said, I think it was a mistake for Bush to focus on Iraq rather than the not-yet-stabilized Afghanistan. If America had focused her resources on making Afghanistan free, maybe the world situation wouldn't seem so scary.
on Oct 07, 2004
The only people who have the resources to make Afganistan free are the Afganis. Likewise the Iraqis are the only ones who can make themselves free. The best we can do is create favorable conditions.
on Oct 07, 2004
Sorry Iantyger,
but I don't accept the ends justify the means. There is no acceptable cae where the president can lie to the people to get them to start a war. Your example between FDR totally ignores the fact that Hitler was at war with countries the US considered allies. Saddam was not at war. The US pre-emptively invaded. Like Japan pre-emptively attacked Pearl Harbour. Pre emptive wars based on lies are wrong.

I would like to clarify here that a president taking action which they believe is right and then facing the consequences of that action is totally acceptable. Facing the consequences is the important part here. A man who cannot make decisions and face the consequences if they get it wrong should not be in the Oval Office. Where's the integrity? If GWB had told the American people the truth, emphasised the danger of Saddam, the reasons why he had to be removed now and said that he was sending US troops into action to achieve this goal, then I for one would respect that. But that is not what happened. GWB misled the American people as to why they were going to war, and now he needs to face that fact.

Paul.
on Oct 07, 2004
Your example between FDR totally ignores the fact that Hitler was at war with countries the US considered allies. Saddam was not at war.


Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, though just forget about the Oil For Food Program Scandal that has already been proven to be true and Koffi Annan is blocking the investigation, even Charles Duefler(sp?) was saying that Saddam bribed the Security Council and that Saddam would have gone back into the business of WMD the second we let him be and turned our backs.

Just forget about that part and go straight for the jugular of your opponent!!

We don't need truth, we want your tooth!

- GX

on Oct 07, 2004
I'm not saying he lied (I'm ESPECIALLY not saying he lied). I'm saying he emphasized one aspect of the total danger (Saddam Hussein's Iraq regime was ready, willing, and almost able to acquire WMD). Remember, this was a regime that had already used WMD, and was under probation, if you will, for various crimes. We claimed he had violated his terms of the cease-fire (he had continually flouted them, ever since the gulf war had ended), and decided that we could no longer tolerate this. President Bush leaned rather heavily ont he WMD issue, it's true - but he did not claim that Iraq had WMD, only that they were not providing proof that they had disarmed, and that they were still trying to build up the capability. This was something we could no longer tolerate.

The other thing is, we were already at war with Iraq; we were in the middle of a 11-year cease-fire that one side was constantly violating in letter and in spririt, as well as being in violation of the terms of that cease fire.

In short, we could no longer take the chance on Iraq, and the most politically expedient way to deal with this was to emphasize the WMD threat that Iraq posed - and they did pose a threat. They had the capability to quickly reconsititute their WMD programs (see one of my other posts today for more information on this). It did turn out that Iraq did not have any large stocks of WMD. But at the time of decision, EVERYBODY thought he had them, and Saddam didn't try very hard to disprove this. Throughout the '90s everyone believed this, and there wasn't any real reason to change this belief. So President Bush went with the likelihood of Iraq having WMD and/or WMD programs ready to go. And he took a threat off the board.
on Oct 07, 2004
Your analogy to FDR is a little misleading, in that you have selected the past war that most Americans agree had to be fought.

In truth, it is hard to find exceptions to the following generalization: war, at the outset, seems much more attractive to leaders than to citizens. This is true for many reasons, some more reasonable than others, but lurking in the background is the fact that wartime leaders are better positioned to avoid domestic criticism. Whatever the problems of the times, it much easier to hold onto power when there is a concrete foreign enemy to be fought.

The leaders always manage to frame the matter not as a question of the wisest course of actions, but rather as a test of patriotism, using some pretext which rarely bears up well under close scrutiny in later years.

Once in motion, such a move to war is all but unstoppable, given the ready coalition of political loyalists, general fools, and anxious warriors.

This general scenerio holds true for a lot more than World War II and the Iraqi War.
on Oct 07, 2004
Mr. Bremont, in 1940, there was still considerable debate as to whether the war had to be fought (at least in the general populace).

Knowing what we know now about the horrors of WWII germany, US involvement in WWII is a no-brainer, in hidnsight. It wasn't so in 1940. And that's just in the West. In the pacific, Japan was angry at the US because we had invoked trade sanctions on them in exchange for their actions in China. They attacked us because we (innocently enough) threatened their way of life. Sound familiar?
on Oct 07, 2004

Reply #7 By: IanTyger - 10/7/2004 9:09:40 PM
Mr. Bremont, in 1940, there was still considerable debate as to whether the war had to be fought (at least in the general populace).

Knowing what we know now about the horrors of WWII germany, US involvement in WWII is a no-brainer, in hidnsight. It wasn't so in 1940. And that's just in the West. In the pacific, Japan was angry at the US because we had invoked trade sanctions on them in exchange for their actions in China. They attacked us because we (innocently enough) threatened their way of life. Sound familiar?


100% correct! As a kid growing up around parents that came in othe end of and grandfather that was actually in WWII I've heard all the stories. I also have in my posession a book made up of the front pages of the Phila Inquirer during ALL those years. And what he says matches what I'm reading.
on Oct 08, 2004
no need to highlight points I agree with here. Saddam was a threat and had to be removed.

The US and Saddam were NOT at war though. Neither was any other country. The arguement that Saddam was in breech of ceasefire resolutions at that time does not hold as he was not in breech of the latest resolution, 1441. The situation was very different from WW2 where Hitler was actively at war. Therefore the US decided to invade a country they were not at war with.

I personalyl think there were very good reasons for that invasion. The point is that the givernment did not sell the war to the public on those reasons but on what later turned out to be a lie. I say later, because I honestly believe that bush and blair believed Saddam had WMD. There is ample proof though that they manipulated data to make their case and that is what i find unacceptable. I have no problem with going to war, just with presidents manipulating people and not having the integrity to admit they got it wrong.

Paul.
on Oct 08, 2004

Reply #9 By: Solitair - 10/8/2004 3:01:29 AM
no need to highlight points I agree with here. Saddam was a threat and had to be removed.

The US and Saddam were NOT at war though. Neither was any other country. The arguement that Saddam was in breech of ceasefire resolutions at that time does not hold as he was not in breech of the latest resolution, 1441. The situation was very different from WW2 where Hitler was actively at war. Therefore the US decided to invade a country they were not at war with.


Actually he was! And this time I'm quoting from the body of 1441 Not the preamble:


1. Decides that Iraq has been and remains in material breach of its
obligations under relevant resolutions, including resolution 687 (1991), in particular
through Iraq’s failure to cooperate with United Nations inspectors and the IAEA,
and to complete the actions required under paragraphs 8 to 13 of resolution 687
(1991);
2. Decides, while acknowledging paragraph 1 above, to afford Iraq, by this
resolution, a final opportunity to comply with its disarmament obligations under
relevant resolutions of the Council; and accordingly decides to set up an enhanced
inspection regime with the aim of bringing to full and verified completion the
disarmament process established by resolution 687 (1991) and subsequent
resolutions of the Council;
3. Decides that, in order to begin to comply with its disarmament
obligations, in addition to submitting the required biannual declarations, the
Government of Iraq shall provide to UNMOVIC, the IAEA, and the Council, not
later than 30 days from the date of this resolution, a currently accurate, full, and
complete declaration of all aspects of its programmes to develop chemical,
biological, and nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, and other delivery systems such
as unmanned aerial vehicles and dispersal systems designed for use on aircraft,
including any holdings and precise locations of such weapons, components, subcomponents,
stocks of agents, and related material and equipment, the locations and
work of its research, development and production facilities, as well as all other
chemical, biological, and nuclear programmes, including any which it claims are for
purposes not related to weapon production or material;
4. Decides that false statements or omissions in the declarations submitted
by Iraq pursuant to this resolution and failure by Iraq at any time to comply with,
and cooperate fully in the implementation of, this resolution shall constitute a
further material breach of Iraq’s obligations and will be reported to the Council for
assessment in accordance with paragraphs 11 and 12 below;
5. Decides that Iraq shall provide UNMOVIC and the IAEA immediate,
unimpeded, unconditional, and unrestricted access to any and all, including
underground, areas, facilities, buildings, equipment, records, and means of transport
which they wish to inspect, as well as immediate, unimpeded, unrestricted, and
private access to all officials and other persons whom UNMOVIC or the IAEA wish
to interview in the mode or location of UNMOVIC’s or the IAEA’s choice pursuant
to any aspect of their mandates; further decides that UNMOVIC and the IAEA may
at their discretion conduct interviews inside or outside of Iraq, may facilitate the
travel of those interviewed and family members outside of Iraq, and that, at the sole
discretion of UNMOVIC and the IAEA, such interviews may occur without the
presence of observers from the Iraqi Government; and instructs UNMOVIC and
requests the IAEA to resume inspections no later than 45 days following adoption of
this resolution and to update the Council 60 days thereafter;



Start by checking section 1 say that Iraq had been and remained in material breech.
Then they violated section 3. They never gave the UN the complete breakdown of their weapons programs.
Section 4. They *definitly* gave false statements to the UN Security concil.
Section 5. You going to try and tell me that Saddam gave immediate,
unimpeded, unconditional, and unrestricted access to any and all facilities. Fact.....He did not do so.
Now I don't know about you, but to my limited knowledge it sounds like he was definitly in breech of R1441.
on Oct 08, 2004

This was an excellent article! 


The only people who have the resources to make Afganistan free are the Afganis. Likewise the Iraqis are the only ones who can make themselves free. The best we can do is create favorable conditions.


That's the best explanation I've heard in ages.


Here... have an insightful!

on Oct 09, 2004
drmiler,
on point 1 Saddam was in breech of previous articles. We agree on that. The question is whether he will breech this article.

on point 3. Saddam provided a complete 12,000 page report on his weapons. No WMD were mentioned in it and so the UK and US claimed he was in breech. Turns out he wasn;t and his report was correct. So he did NOT breech on this point.

on point 4. Same as point 3. The US adn UK assumed false statements were made as no WMD were revealed. Turns out they didn;t exist and so Saddam was NOT in breech here either.

on point 5. Saddam DID give immediate access to ALL sites including presidential palaces from this point forward. Previous he had not, but now he did and so again was NOT in breech on this point.

Unless the US and UK found WMD Saddam was not actually in breech of article 1441. Doesn't change the fact that he had been in breech of previous articles, was actively trying to break sanctions, and was an evil dictator who should have been removed. But does remove the excuse of using article 1441 or earlier articles to invade.

Paul.
on Oct 09, 2004
Solitair, read my next-most-recent post here on more about the Iraq WMD.
on Oct 09, 2004

Reply #12 By: Solitair - 10/9/2004 2:46:10 PM
drmiler,
on point 1 Saddam was in breech of previous articles. We agree on that. The question is whether he will breech this article.

on point 3. Saddam provided a complete 12,000 page report on his weapons. No WMD were mentioned in it and so the UK and US claimed he was in breech. Turns out he wasn;t and his report was correct. So he did NOT breech on this point.

on point 4. Same as point 3. The US adn UK assumed false statements were made as no WMD were revealed. Turns out they didn;t exist and so Saddam was NOT in breech here either.

on point 5. Saddam DID give immediate access to ALL sites including presidential palaces from this point forward. Previous he had not, but now he did and so again was NOT in breech on this point.


Sorry but your points 3 & 5 are incorrect. 3 He did NOT give a complete accounting. 5 He did NOT give immediate and "unresricted" access to all underground, areas, facilities, buildings, equipment, records, and means of transport. These are proven facts not hearsay or opinion.
on Oct 09, 2004
There is no acceptable cae where the president can lie to the people to get them to start a war.


If I hear this one more time I'm gonna puke (again). This is Michael Moore/Terry McAwful BULLSHIT. Take it and put where it belongs, either down the toilet or up your arse.

Cheers,
Daiwa
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