An internet diary
As we careen towards destiny
Published on October 7, 2004 By IanTyger In Politics

Bush used the potential of Iraqi WMDs to invade Iraq so that we would have Iran (a country that there is not question anymore about being inimical to the USA and attempting to acquire WMD) caught in a two-front vise. So that we would have battle-hardened troops on the border of Iran. He took advantage of Saddam's intransigence.

This compares to the undeclared war FDR had going in the North Atlantic between the US Navy and the Nazi Kriegsmarine. FDR had to drag the US kicking and screaming into WWII. He got a boost for this from Pearl Harbor, and from Hitler deciding to declare war on the USA; but make no mistake, the US involvement in WWII was just as much of "FDR's war" as the War on Terror is "GWB's war". And the decision to invade Iraq after being attacked on 9/11 is just as valid as the decision to invade Africa was after being attacked on 12/7. More valid, in some ways, as we are putting troops into the same theatre of operations from which our attackers came.

Could Bush have used this argument to get the US people behind him? Please. Look at the problems we have now. So the argument was, Iraq has not stopped trying to obtain WMD, they show no signs of changing their habits, and the efforts we are making to keep him from getting them are becoming intolerable to maintain. So we have chosen to make sure he can no longer attempt to acquire WMD and threaten stability by removing him from the equation. The enemies of the President have chosen to interpret this as "Saddam has WMD, we must get rid of him for that reason". That's not what he said. He said Saddam wants to get them, and we can no longer keep doing what we are doing to keep him from getting them. We're doing things differently now.

Remember, people, the final goal is not a stabilized Iraq. The final goal is a world where terrorists cannot flourish because all the world's governments will not support them. This will require a stable Iraq, so that is one of the results. But it is not the goal. Focusing on results in Iraq is like complaining because your football (US rules) team is not trying to make a first down when it is 2nd and 7 on the 11th yard line, with your team down by 4, and 30 seconds left on the clock. Kerry wants to punt, others want to concede the game. Bush wants to score the touchdown. But that means taking risks, that means putting the ball in the air where it can be intercepted. But it needs to be done.

Did Bush mislead the American public? Did FDR mislead the American public in 1940 when the US Navy was fighting engagements with the Kriegsmarine off the coast of the USA? Did FDR mislead the public when he loaned US equipment to warring nations with no real expectation that they would be able to pay for it? Or would you like to argue that WWII was illegitimate because a cabal of Interventionists tricked the country into war?

Except this time our president is merely guilty of over-emphasizing one aspect of a complicated calculus of decisions that have led us to this point. And it looks a little grim from here. But I recently re-read The Moon is a Harsh Mistress by robert Heinlein. In is, a group of revolutionaries decide that they will go ahead with their revolution if (and only if) their computer says to them that they have better than one chance it ten of succeeding. After much time spent calculating, the computer comes up with 1 chance in seven, and they go ahead. But during their struggle, the computer keep srecalculating, and the odds spend a lot of time getting worse (they hit under 1% at the low point) before they get better. That's where we are right now - the odds at the beginning looked pretty good. They have gooten worse as we have chosen certain paths over others. But we still have a chance, and things are beginning to look better. We can try and make it better, or we can give up now, and leave an even worse mess for the next time around.

You know where I stand on that question.


Comments (Page 2)
2 Pages1 2 
on Oct 10, 2004
But Bush didn't lie. At most he overemphasized a particular aspect of the threat.
on Oct 10, 2004
I didn't hear Bush talking about invading Iran once, did you?
I certainly hope he wouldn't. Iran's military is about three times the size of Iraq's and is much more organized. Iran is 2.5 times the size of Irzq, making insurgencies impecibly hard to control, especially considering that they would take place all over Iran but have only taken place in the Sunni triangle in Iraq. You have to remember that the Irani government enjoys much greater support than the former Iraqi government.
Don't give me this crap about pressing Iran from two fronts. It's just not true!
on Oct 10, 2004
I didn't hear Bush talking about invading Iran once, did you?


Don't forget there are Democracy movements in Iran; let them collapse from within because they are going to have two neighboring countries that have Democracy, MUHAHAHAHHAHA!!

Though North Korea would make Iran look like a cakewalk. Not to mention we have NO GUARANTEE China will not attack us if we invaded North Korea, also the fact your average North Korean has been brainwashed for the past 50 years.

- GX
on Oct 10, 2004
Iran's military being larger than Iraq's is irrelevant; it's just that many more targets to be serviced frm beyond their effective range. Iran has no more modern equipment than Iraq did, no air force to speak of, and no better chances. Militarily, it's a hands-down US victory. Might take a little longer than the conquest of Iraq, but not much more, only because Iran is a little larger physically. And the insurgency problem won't be as bad, because there won't be an inimically hostile nation on the border funnelling fighters into teh country.

Anyone who thinks we can't take Iran down is just not paying attention. The US military is just that much more powerful.

I wouldn't be too sure that the current Iranian government enjoys more support than the previous Iraqi regime did, either. Just about every month I hear about some kind of crackdown, or student protest, etc. Remember, the last election was basically invalidated by the Mullahs becuase it resulted in a dangerously idealogically impure parliament.
on Oct 11, 2004
Drmiler,
I'm not sure what points he omitted in his 12,000 page documents. The only issue I'm aware of was that his missile program was technically capable of slightly better range than stated. Only if it was carrying a WMD warhead as oppossed to the conventional one it was designed for though. So please do point out any omissions, and I'll be happy to admit I'm wrong here on point 3.
I'm also not sure on your immediate access claim. Hans Blix himself stated that after 1441 Saddam DID grant immediate access to ALL locations without any need for prior warning. I'm not sure why you feel Saddam was in breech of this AFTER 1441 when the head of the weapon inspectors himself says he wasn't. no arguement that before 1441 he was in breech, demanding prior warning of visits and refusing all requests for entry to presidential palace complexes.

Paul.
on Oct 11, 2004
But Bush didn't lie. At most he overemphasized a particular aspect of the threat


Interesting arguement.

Bush emphasised aspects of the threat that the CIA told him were NOT proven. For example he emphasised informatino suggesting Saddam tried to obtain nuclear material in Niger. The information was indeed there. Bush didn't make it up. But the CIA told him there were doubts and asked him NOT to mention the information as it was too doubtful. Is Bush then lying for knowingly emphasising information he knows the CIA believes is false?

If someone tells me an untruth, am I lying if I emphasise that untruth and convince others that it is true? What if the person who told me the untruth in the first place tells me that it may not be true? Am I then lying if I tell people it is true?

Paul.
on Oct 11, 2004
Bush emphasised aspects of the threat that the CIA told him were NOT proven. For example he emphasised informatino suggesting Saddam tried to obtain nuclear material in Niger.


Niger is in Africa; africa is not only Niger. Bush said Africa, not Niger. It's worhtwhile to note a) that the only debunker of the Niger thread is a partisan axe-grinder, the Brits still stand by their intelligence report, and c) there is other evidence that Saddam did try and obtain nuclear materials elsewhere in Africa.
on Oct 11, 2004
If we are doing so bad in Iraq then how is this possible?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FROM JOSEPH FARAH'S G2 BULLETIN
U.S. military sees
good news in Iraq
Declassified report finds progress in government, utilities, health care, schools, economy, security

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted: October 11, 2004
1:00 a.m. Eastern

Editor's note: Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin is an online, subscription intelligence news service from the creator of WorldNetDaily.com – a journalist who has been developing sources around the world for the last 25 years.

© 2004 WorldNetDaily.com


While continuing terrorist attacks in Iraq have pushed the military campaign into the middle of the presidential debate in the United States, a declassified military report shows the progress that has been made on the political, economic and societal fronts.

On the transition to Iraqi sovereignty, the declassified report obtained by Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin, the premium online intelligence newsletter published by WND, points out significant progress is being made across the board – in the new government, with utilities, in health care, in schools, the economy and in national security.

Elections for the National Assembly are scheduled for Jan. 31 with the transitional government taking power early in 2005, the report boasts. The draft of the permanent constitution is set for Aug. 15, 2005, with a referendum on the document scheduled for Oct. 15. Elections for the new government will be complete by Dec. 15 next year and it takes office Dec. 31.

While those dates have been fixed for some time, what is getting less attention more generally from the U.S. news media are the accomplishments on the economic side.

As of July 21, estimated crude oil export revenue had reached $9.2 billion for 2004. While the unemployment rate in the country is high by U.S. standards at 28 percent, far more people are working than just six months ago. According to a recent survey, average household income had risen from $124 a month to $214. Nearly 3,000 loans totaling more than $6 million have been disbursed to micro-enterprises and small businesses throughout the country. And the New Iraq Dinar has been relatively stable for more than six months at around 1,425-1,460 to the U.S. dollar.

The report says there have been major breakthroughs in water supply and sanitation. Some 12 million people are being served by new projects across Iraq. A poor area of Baghdad with nearly 1 million people is now getting water from a rehabilitated water treatment plant. Some 30-40 percent of the marshlands deliberately drained by Saddam Hussein in his genocidal campaign against the marsh Arabs have been reflooded. A program last year cleared more than 17,000 kilometers of Iraqi waterways to improve water flow and irrigation. Another program is set to clear some 20,000 kilometers and employ around 100,000 Iraqis.

Health care for Iraqis has been greatly improved as well, according to the report. It is estimated that 85 percent of children have been immunized and rates are increasing with ongoing programs. More than 240 hospitals are operating along with 1,200 preventive health clinics.

There are now nearly 2,500 schools in operation across the country with 4,500 new ones planned. Another 1,200 will be rehabilitated. Some 32,000 secondary school teachers and administrators have been trained. More than 8.7 million textbooks have been printed and distributed, along with large amounts of equipment including student desks, chairs, cabinets, chalkboards and teacher kits.

Power supplies to civilians at 120,000 megawatt hours are now higher than pre-war levels of 95,600 MHP.

The security front is also greatly improved, according to the declassified report. There are now 88,500 police on the job with a goal of 94,400. There are 18,200 border enforcement officers with a goal of 20,400. The Iraqi national guard is up to 37,400 strong reaching toward a goal of 41,100 and there are some 11,200 Iraqi army regulars with a goal of 35,200.

U.S.-led coalition forces have also been buoyed by last week's news that the rebel Shiite Muslim militia led by Moqtada al-Sadr has pledged to disarm in what could be a major advance for efforts to calm violence in Iraq ahead of elections due in January.

The proposal, which meets a key demand of the interim government, was announced by Ali Smeism, a top al-Sadr adviser, on Arabic Al-Arabiya television. It followed the release of a pro-Sadr cleric from U.S. detention in Abu Ghraib jail. Smeism said that in return for any weapons surrender, the government must guarantee that al-Sadr’s followers are not "persecuted" and the U.S. military must free more of his aides.

Talks are also under way to defuse a standoff with insurgents controlling the Sunni Muslim stronghold of Falluja.

There was no immediate word from the government or the U.S. military on the ceasefire deal proposed by Sadr’s aide. Foreign Minister Franco Frattini of Italy, which has troops in Iraq, said it was a good start.
on Oct 12, 2004
The Brits do still stand by their 'classified' intelligence report, not the information taken from that report and used by the government. british officials have gone on record admitting that the classified report contains all the doubts on the accuracy of the link between Saddam and Niger. No member of british intelligence will state that Saddam did try to obtain uranium, just that they stand by the original report. Very telling really. As stated elsewhere, the British intelligence didn't so much goof as let the politicians interfere.

As for the use of Africa not Niger, you are definitely picking at straws here. The CIA asked Bush to remove the statement as they felt the data they provided was NOT strong enough for this assertation to be made. He didn't remove the statement, thus in my opinion he chose the emphasise information that he knew was suspect.

Paul.
on Oct 12, 2004
Drmiler,
who is your reply to? Who is accusing the US of doing badly in Iraq?

Paul.
on Oct 12, 2004

Reply #20 By: Solitair - 10/11/2004 2:47:11 AM
Drmiler,
I'm not sure what points he omitted in his 12,000 page documents. The only issue I'm aware of was that his missile program was technically capable of slightly better range than stated. Only if it was carrying a WMD warhead as oppossed to the conventional one it was designed for though. So please do point out any omissions, and I'll be happy to admit I'm wrong here on point 3.
I'm also not sure on your immediate access claim. Hans Blix himself stated that after 1441 Saddam DID grant immediate access to ALL locations without any need for prior warning. I'm not sure why you feel Saddam was in breech of this AFTER 1441 when the head of the weapon inspectors himself says he wasn't. no arguement that before 1441 he was in breech, demanding prior warning of visits and refusing all requests for entry to presidential palace complexes.

Paul.


Go read reply #10 in reposnce to the second half of your question.
In responce to the first half go here and read.

Link

on Oct 12, 2004
Duplicate post deleted
on Oct 13, 2004
Drmiler,
response #10 quotes the article itself and are therefore pre 1441 breaches. My comments (and Hans Blix's) still stand. Saddam provided immediate access to ALL sites after 1441.
your link provided no evidence that saddams 12,000 page document omitted anything. Indeed the Dreuger report itself found no evidence. Please highlight any aspects on yoru link that you feel contradict this, but I couldn't find any.

paul.
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